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Comments
when do we find out who the final three are?
Monday night Egypt time
(Note: this is just a prediction exercise - in the end God's will prevails)
My prediction:
Anba Rofail will definitely receive most votes.
Abouna Bakhomious will definitely receive the least number of votes.
The other 3 candidates will be very very close, but my personal PREFERENCE would be Abouna Raphael and Abouna Seraphim, since Anba Tawadrous would be uncanonical (according to the spirit of the canons). But it really could go any way with these 3.
However, I personally PREDICT Abouna Seraphim will not make it through (ie he will be 4th), since most of the voters in Egypt would not connect with his heavy emphasis on the lands of immigration. On the other hand, many say that, despite his spirituality, Abouna Raphael is too old to become Pope (I disagree - but this is a prediction exercise). Yet, Anba Tawadrous is regarded by some as being not as good a candidate as many of the other nominees.
What do you think?
At the end of the day, may The Lord choose a good shepherd after his heart, to shepherd his people in purity and righteousness.
hey, you never know! Abouna Bakhomios could get more votes than others since he's the youngest among them. And anyways, who are we to "predict"? Lets just leave it to God :) we find out on Monday anyways, so whatever ;D
We have a beautiful Church and great history. All this is wasted without the ability to spread our faith other languages to reach out to different nations.
[quote author=minasoliman]
I received an official email from copticworld: Fasting for the Sunday lot will be three days, Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday this week. One of these three men who will be chosen from the lot will be enthroned on November 18. May God extend his hand and choose for us the right and perfect shephard for our church.
http://www.orthodoxchristianity.net/forum/index.php/topic,43643.msg828702/topicseen.html#msg828702
lots prayers please!
[quote author=Ηεζεκιελ link=topic=13790.msg160778#msg160778 date=1351550278]
I have heard that a holy monk ( do not remember the name) had once prohecised that Anba Rofael would become a Pope. So it looks like sayedna is inching closer to the papal office.
I hope so! Or maybe Abouna Raphael will be pope, then Anba Raphael will succeed him!
that is a good observation-). .I did not think about that possiblity.
1. H.G. Anba Tawadros
2. H.G. Anba Raphael
3. and Hegumen Father Raphael Ava Mina
I don't think youngest candidate makes a big difference, because he is only younger by 5 or so years.
I did some checking. Take a look at this.
Coptic Pope
117 - Pope Shenouda ordained at 48 years old, reigned 40 years.
116 - Pope Cyril VI ordained at 57 years old, reigned 11 years.
115 - Pope Yousab II ordained at 70 years old, reigned 10 years.
114 - Pope Macarius III ordained at 72 years old, reigned 1 year.
113 - Pope John XIX ordained at 73 years old, reigned 14 years.
112 - Pope Cyril V ordained at 50 years old, reigned 52 years.
111 - Pope Demetrius II unknown birth year, reigned 8 years. (I assume he was over 60 years old for secondary reasons)
110 - Pope Cyril IV ordained at 37 years old, reigned 7 years.
109 - Pope Peter VII unknown birth, reigned 48 years. (I assume he was under 60 years old secondary reasons)
Most Coptic patriarchs before this did not record their birth year.
Ethiopian and Eritrean popes
Ethiopian Abuna Paulos ordained at 57 years old, reigned 20 years
Ethiopian Abuna Merkorias, assuming a bishop ordination in 1976, he was 42 when he was ordained patriarch and reigned for 9 years before he was excommunicated in 2007. (Never officially recognized by the Coptic Church). He is still alive in the USA.
Eritrean Abune Antonios ordained at 77 years old, reigned 3 years.
Eritrean Abune Dioskorus ordained at 72 years old, currently reigning for the last 5 years. (Not officially recognized)
Although I could not get any information, I believe Eritrean Abuna Phillipos was ordained at the age of 90 when he was ordained in 1998 and reigned for 3 years.
Conclusion:
The three remaining nominees are Bishop Tawadros (60 years old), Bishop Rafael (54 years old) and Fr Raphael Ava Mina (70 years old)
If one is ordained patriarch after his 60th birthday, his patriarchal reign expectancy period is 6.2 years. If ordained before 60, the average expectancy is 31.6 years (at least for the 19-21st centuries).
The reason I did all this was to show there are quite a handful of patriarchs ordained at 70 years of age. No one has been disqualified for being too old.
Let's do it by region or birth place.
How many popes were born in Shoubra?
According to Bishop Paula, being born in Shoubra is a blessing. I agree. We are all the best.
Take a look at Pope Shenouda III - he served in Shoubra and his FoC was in Shoubra.
Man, if he's not from Shoubra, forget it.
The next question you should be asking: does he like foule and ta2meya? What about eggs and basterma? Cos... some people pretend they are from shoubra, and then you ask them if they eat foule and ta3meya sandwiches, and they are just so put off.
he is under house arrest and in poor health, but he is still the patriarch and i recently communed in one of his churches.
please remember him in your prayers.
And I agree that Abouna Raphael is not too old - I have just heard that from SOOOO many people it's not funny. I think the number of his votes from the diaspora would have been quite low (based on above anecdotal evidence).[/agreed]
And that's part of the reason why I posted this. People fail to realize that we nominated and elected 2 Coptic patriarchs in the 20th century that were over 70 years old and one of them led the Coptic Church for 14 years. Yes the sample size is too small but I intentionally left it for 19-21st century because of the post-industrial revolution. Another factor that skews the result is we have 3 of the longest patriarch reigns in these two centuries. If we were to pick any other two centuries, I would assume that patriarchs ordained before their 60th birthday would have an average around 20 years, not 31.6 years. But since I couldn't verify birthdays of most patriarchs before the 19th century, I couldn't verify that theory.
I would disgree about the lifestyle. The average US citizen does not fast, pray or keep vigil as much as patriarchs and bishops do. So even if we compared to US citizens, we would skew the numbers. If however, you take any Copt (whether in Egypt or the US), you've adjusted for geographic and cultural differences. But comparing only Coptic popes adjusts for lifestyle variables also.
Anyways, this was just meant to be a fun exercise. It does show that past experiences show Coptic papal reigning terms show a difference by age of ordination.
What steps has the COc taken as mediator and mother church to resolve this problem?
RO
I think ILSM can give us much more details than anyone can find online. After all, he is the go to guy on Oriental Orthodox clergy.
will post in a thread about eritrea so we don't confuse this one.
The immediate withdrawal of both noncanonical candidates would seem to indicate love and obedience to God's Commandments and the Holy Spirit's confirming manifestation. John 14: 1-30. God will give us just exactly what we need. Thank God for everything.
[quote author=Remnkemi link=topic=13790.msg160807#msg160807 date=1351614222]
[quote author=qawe link=topic=13790.msg160698#msg160698 date=1351303950]
I don't think youngest candidate makes a big difference, because he is only younger by 5 or so years.
I did some checking. Take a look at this.
Coptic Pope
117 - Pope Shenouda ordained at 48 years old, reigned 40 years.
116 - Pope Cyril VI ordained at 57 years old, reigned 11 years.
115 - Pope Yousab II ordained at 70 years old, reigned 10 years.
114 - Pope Macarius III ordained at 72 years old, reigned 1 year.
113 - Pope John XIX ordained at 73 years old, reigned 14 years.
112 - Pope Cyril V ordained at 50 years old, reigned 52 years.
111 - Pope Demetrius II unknown birth year, reigned 8 years. (I assume he was over 60 years old for secondary reasons)
110 - Pope Cyril IV ordained at 37 years old, reigned 7 years.
109 - Pope Peter VII unknown birth, reigned 48 years. (I assume he was under 60 years old secondary reasons)
Most Coptic patriarchs before this did not record their birth year.
Ethiopian and Eritrean popes
Ethiopian Abuna Paulos ordained at 57 years old, reigned 20 years
Ethiopian Abuna Merkorias, assuming a bishop ordination in 1976, he was 42 when he was ordained patriarch and reigned for 9 years before he was excommunicated in 2007. (Never officially recognized by the Coptic Church). He is still alive in the USA.
Eritrean Abune Antonios ordained at 77 years old, reigned 3 years.
Eritrean Abune Dioskorus ordained at 72 years old, currently reigning for the last 5 years. (Not officially recognized)
Although I could not get any information, I believe Eritrean Abuna Phillipos was ordained at the age of 90 when he was ordained in 1998 and reigned for 3 years.
Conclusion:
The three remaining nominees are Bishop Tawadros (60 years old), Bishop Rafael (54 years old) and Fr Raphael Ava Mina (70 years old)
If one is ordained patriarch after his 60th birthday, his patriarchal reign expectancy period is 6.2 years. If ordained before 60, the average expectancy is 31.6 years (at least for the 19-21st centuries).
The reason I did all this was to show there are quite a handful of patriarchs ordained at 70 years of age. No one has been disqualified for being too old.
All of this may, or may not, be somewhat true, or of any real value. It all shows that the seeming last hopes on earth, the OO Churches, are in dire need of true traditional Apostolic Orthodox spiritual guidance and instruction. Please, God, have mercy on us as You see to be necessary. Bless the new Coptic Patriarch. Bless all of the evil besieged father heads and children of rebellious Orthodox Christian families.